OK you win. What Breevok is stocking up for Cataclysm, and why if Markco wants to promote his thoughts on my blog then he's open to being corrected when he gets it wrong :)

OK. You win. You want to know what I am doing to prepare for Cata? So be it.

You all know the story of Pandora's Box I presume? The box was given to Pandora which contained all the evils of the world. When Pandora opened it, the entire contents of the jar were released, but for one – hope. Today, opening Pandora's box means to create evil that cannot be undone.

That's the risk I take, but what needs to be done, needs to be done.

What irks me a little is that I've already given you all the information you need in three posts weeks ago. The trilogy was all you needed to move gold from A to B where A is everyone else and B is you.

There was the post on why people spend gold in WoW. Then there was the one on how the average player gets gold and who they spend it with. And finally on how to increase the chances that they spend it with me you.

I know that some readers have understood what I was saying and have invested based on the information. These people will succeed in Cataclysm, because they take what information I've given and applied it to their circumstances - because remember each of us is different. We have different professions, we live on different servers, we all have different interests. I honestly cannot give you a "Do this, then this, then this" list which will work for everyone.

I know this from experience. This is why I do 'Rags to Riches' experiments on a regular basis. I have level 10 toons on 8 servers now with more than 1500g on them. I do this to learn what things are common between servers and what things differ widely - and then try and work out why this variation exists. Its called research, and it is part of why I have confidence entering Cataclysm.

OK rant over - you want to know what I am doing....

 

Oh you didn't think you were getting off that easily did you? I, of course, need to explain a few things first.

We all have heard of the phrase "History Repeats Itself". The problem is that that isnt the full quote. George Bernard Shaw, the Irish Author actually said:

If history repeats itself, and the unexpected always happens, how incapable must Man be of learning from experience.

George Santayana, Spanish Philosopher gave us another gem:

Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

 And therein lies the truth. You want to know how to make money with Cata? Then look to Burning Crusade.

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So what do I mean? OK lets talk elemental items . In WotLK these were broken down into six groups - life, air, water, fire, earth and shadow. You can have crystallized or eternal.

Burning Crusade had similar. Motes replaced crystallized, primals replaced eternals, but ultimately they were the same.

Now compare some current prices:

Are you seeing what I am seeing? Ignore the fact that primals are generally more expensive than the sum of their parts (i.e. motes) - if you didn't already know this then you are poor and nothing I am saying makes any sense anyway.

What I am seeing is that the price of primals verses the price of eternals are comparable. Sure primal water and air is expensive compared to their eternal versions (Why is this? Because of the availability of them, and the fact you need to actually go and farm them PLUS because of what they can be used for).

What I am NOT seeing is that the prices of primals/motes are a few copper. They are still in demand , and people will pay good gold for them.

But this is all what is happening how - we need more history to strengthen our arguments.

I cannot tell you what the prices of motes and primals were come the end of burning crusade. It was over a year ago and I dont have records that far back. However I am 100% sure that what we are seeing in WotLK is exactly what happened at the end of BC. People got bored, people levelled alts, people stopped raiding, people saved up for the expansion. People dumped stock. Prices fell.

Lets look at what's happened in WotLK over the past six weeks to the price of eternals:

This is just one factor. Other factors to be considered:

• Gold in Burning Crusade was not as abundant as it is now. Likewise (more history repeating itself) gold will be more abundant in Cataclysm - it will need to be when a full repair of ilvl 333 gear from red damage will cost you 500g
• When the economy is awash with currency, prices increase. Can you even imagine spending 16k of a mount in Burning Crusade? Just look around at the number of Tundra Mammoths and Motorbikes.
• If an item is in demand then people will pay well to get what they want. As supply goes down, prices go up. ECON 101 right there. Whatever you say, come Cata, Northrend is going to become a ghost town and the amount of eternals/crystallized items will decrease.
• What exactly the items were used for - which professions etc This is all available information on Wowhead

So looking into my crystal ball I would be confident in say that at the end of Burning Crusade primals and motes were priced something like this:

OK so what does this tell us? It tells us that come cataclysm certain items are still going to be needed, and people are going to be willing to pay good gold for them. I predict that the price of eternals will increase from current prices by between 200 and 300%. Yes I predict that do every 100g you invest in eternals at market price will be returned 3 fold in the future.

Of course, I've been stashing eternals away for weeks, at snatch prices way below market price. My returns will be 5-10x what I paid.

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This is just one of a lot of investments I am making. Now I am no idiot, and I am not going to take snap shots of every guild bank tab and show you exactly what I have. What I have done however, (and this requires storage space and lots of it) is I have left items as raw materials. 

This gives me huge manoeuvrability. For example, I am investing in herbs. I am doing this because come cata (and this is well documented) Inks of the Sea will no longer be exchangeable for other inks. Of course I will have exchanged a lot of inks before Cata hits, and will have stockpiles of all ink types (sorry Foo - change of plan!).

However how many of each ink is very tough to predict, so I am also investing in herbs. They will remain as herbs. Therefore if I need them for inks I can mill them, and if I don't need inks I have them to sell to alchemists instead. 

Processing a raw material is generally a one-way thing. You cannot unmill an ink once its made and get your herbs back. Like wise you cannot un-prospect your ore nor remove an enchant from a vellum. Once its done, you made your decision and you have to live with it. My advice - process nothing until you see what happens in Cata.

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Talking of herbs - if you are bored have a look at herb prices on you server. Exclude peacebloom, silverleaf and earthroot. Then exclude all Northrend herbs. What's the average price of herbs on your server for the rest?

A review of herb prices from Cael shows that most herbs prices, irrespective of whether they are from Wetlands, Hinterhands, EPL or Shadowmoon Valley are generally around the 80s-2g mark. Once again history shows that some items never really depreciate in price - so picking up bargains now will not see you wrong just because Cataclysm hits.

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Of course, not everything is going to increase in price. There are many things that I am not investing in. Epic gems are one example. Why? Just ask history.

Look at current BC gem prices - we'll use yellow gems as an example.

I still sell Golden Draenite, for about 5-6g each. I prospect them from adamantite ore. I vendor Dawnstones for 3g each, because they rarely sell and if they do its for around 3g anyway.

Golden Draenite sell because its used for levelling Jewelry crafting. You cannot get onto Northrend JCing without going through the Golden Draenite level of gems. However you CAN bypass Dawnstones and Lionseye.

The same will happen with power leveling in Cataclysm - so  the price of Sun crystals will increase and the price of King's Ambers will plummet in the weeks and months to come.

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And so finally to Markco - what he's right about and what he's wrong about:

Markco's recommendations to dump before Cata:

• Alchemy - Flasks, elixirs and potions
• Leatherworking - Arctic fur
• Tailoring - Spell threads and leg enhancements 
• Blacksmithing -Titanium shield spike, titanium weapon chain, titanium plating and eternal belt buckle
• Jewelcrafting - Metas and epic gems
• Inscription - Snowfall Inks
• Enchanting - Dreamshards and Abyss Crystals
• Eternals - Shadow, Life and Air
• Other - Frozen Orbs and Primodial Saronites

Markco's recommendations to buy before Cata

• Saronite Ore
• Pets
• Netherweave bags
• Infinite Dust
• Less Cosmic Essence
• Cobalt Bars
• Alchemy Levelling Kits
• Scrolls of BoA Gear
• Borean Leather
• Crystallized Fire and Water

Give Markco his due - I dont disagree with most of his suggestions.

From his first list I would question dreamshards (don't forget that the majority of Northrend enchants have to be purchased with Dreamshards). I personally have plans for Snowfall's (its a secret and I WILL NOT be telling Foo!). Eternals I have already discussed. Frozen orbs I have stockpiles - as I said it gives me options - an orb is any eternal I want. To change an eternal takes a whole days transmute.

From his second list - I personally wouldn't waste a bank slot on a netherweave bag that will sell for 6g come Cata, but good luck to those that do. Never stock bars - stock ore. If you need cobalt bars then make them, but what if cobalt ore goes to crazy prices?

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OK to conclude - I'm stockpiling a lot of items. And I mean a whole range, from Pre-BC through to WotLK items. Some are being stocked to just have them when I need them (and therefore not for profit and with no immediate plans to sell), some are being bought to sell once prices increase when Cata hits. Some will be sold immediately, others in the months that follow. And then there is a third set of items I am stocking up to put to other uses - snowfall ink falls into this category. Of course the ultimate plan is to make gold even from this third list - just not directly. My total stock would fetch at least 500,000g in today's market.

Remember that there will be phases in gold making in Cataclysm. There will be the initial madness (similar to Glyphmas), then over the coming weeks and months the game will enter different phases. The majority of players will take a main toon or two to level 85 quickly. Only then will their minds turn to Worgens and Goblins. Its during this phase that profession power levelling will occur, when the older trade goods will be required.

Making gold in WoW is about holding your nerve - investing at good prices and selling at the right time. Get the timing wrong and you will hurt yourself financially - even to the point of losing money. But if you do your research, know your markets and predict the markets correctly you will make huge amounts of gold come Cata. But just remember as I have said before:

There are goblins everywhere. We know our markets, we have gold to back us up and we aren't going anywhere. You may not know us but we will notice you. Enter our world with your eyes wide open - there is certainly gold to be made - but you will have to work for it. Leave your desperation at the door - because you aren't going to be a millionaire overnight. It's a long hard grind and if you aren't willing to put in the legwork you'd be better off sticking to your dailies.