Non Enchanters - dont be glum!

OK as Klem stated in my comments from the last post - being able to DE items was key to my previous commentary.

My priest is an enchanter - therefore I can always selected DE on a run. However not everyone is an enchanter - my hunter isnt for example.

For her daily random yesterday I ran Utgarde Keep. There was no enchanter in the group - so I could only greed on items.

I made 31g76s25c from coins from mobs, 1g24s25 copper selling trash, 15g.72s35 from selling the two blue items I won and picked up seven frost weave cloth. Repairs cost me 1g16s75c - meaning a run profit of 47g56s10c.

I would liked to have repeated the 10 run experiment with my hunter - however I don't have the patience to queue 10 times with a DPS! But it did lead me to thinking about the probability of running with an enchanter if you aren't one yourself.

Now I am not as bright as I would like to be - so I sent the following mail out to my work:

A person carries 2 of 11 traits. They can only carry two.

I know that I do not carry one of the eleven traits (I’ll called it trait A)

I am in a group of five people. What is the probability that at least one of the other people in the group has Trait A?

I am setting to following rules to make things easier:
1.    Each trait is independent of all others.
2.    Each trait has the same frequency in the population – i.e. 11/100 = 9.1%
3.    You cannot carry two copies of the same trait i.e. cannot be AA

That basically covered it I thought - but as an ex-geneticist, people are now curious as to whether I am moonlighting under old interests!

Any how I have received a few responses - and the answer is around 55-56%

_____________________

For those of you interested:


1.    There are 55 possible trait pairings, 10 include trait A, if all traits have the same frequency in the population then 18.2% of the population exhibit trait A.
2.    The probability of NONE of the four people having trait A is 0.44, therefore the probability that one or more HAVE trait A is 0.56.