I mentioned this last week, that herb prices have skyrocketed on Cael - and on all the other servers that I keep on eye on. Specifically I am talking about Northrend herbs, which have generally increased in price from 50%-100% over the last few months.
Cassandri posted a excellent comment and then invited a response (foolish Cass!) so who am I refuse such a kind request?
I've always predicted this price rise - due to both of the major changes to herbing over recent patches. In February a blue post announced that "The drop rate of Frost Lotus, from herbs in Northrend, has been increased by 50%.". Then in patch 3.3.3, Frozo arrived in Dalaran and started trading Frozen Orbs for Frost Lotus.
I predicted at the time that this would result in herbs increasing in price - because less farming for Frost Lotus would occur because the profit would no longer be there. Last farming for Frost Lotus = less other herbs as a by product. Less availability of herbs = increase in price.
Cassandri offered other possible reasons:
I also think that the herb price inflation has additional factors (although the Frost Lotus increased drop rate and purchase using Frozen Orbs)
1. Less people are running Heroic Daily Dungeons, thus less Frozen Orbs on the market
This is solid reasoning - I know I run my random daily far less frequently now - especially on my hunter who has near 400 EoFs and nothing to spend them on. I can't be bothered waiting 15-20 minutes for a random for no reason. I don't even bother with the weekly unless its something I was going to do anyways or unless the guild needs me.
But I dont think this is the reason. Less orbs means Frozo does less business. Less business means less cheap frost lotus, thus frosts go up, thus the farming becomes more viable. I think the decline in heroics will eventually help herbs plateau in price.
2. In BC you pretty much had to farm to make gold. Even daily quests were capped at 5 then increased to 10 per day then up to our current limit. Over this expansion less and less people are choosing "farming" professions
I ranted a long time ago about Blizzard taking away the non AH gold making opportunities. Arctic fur. Epic gems from titanium ore. Frost Lotus. All the biggies for the three gathering professions - nerfed out of existence because of whinging idiots who couldnt afford to buy them and couldnt be bothered to farm them. Yet again Blizzard bringing the game down to the lowest common denominator - the M&S.
And Cass is right, this has killed these three profs very efficiently. However I don't know anyone that religiously does more than 5 or 6 dailies each day. Catreann does - but thats because she's after some rep or other (I lose track although I know she's grinding Tournament rep at the moment to get to her 100 mounts). I know no one who grinds dailies for money - 25 dailies for 20g a pop - probably takes 2 hours. Use the AH dammit, have I taught you nothing?!?
3. In addition to the above, you can't raid seriously with a gathering profession. Raiding is becoming more and more accessible, but the attitude towards gathering professions for raiding has not. Thus more people raid on more characters and do not choose Herbalism or Mining.
Each of the gathering professions has a personal buff which tries to compensate for the great bonuses other profs have (enchanters can enchant rings, scribes have shoulder enchant etc etc). These are as follows (at 450 skill):
Mining - Toughness All your hard work spent mining has made you exceptionally tough, increasing your Stamina by 60.
Skinning - Master of Anatomy Skinning all those dead animals has broadened your anatomical knowledge, increasing your critical strike rating by 40.
Herbalism - Lifeblood Uses your skill in Herbalism to absorb energy and nutrients from the earth, healing you for 3600 (increased by maximum health) over 5 sec. Can be used while stealthed or invisible.
I accept these are mostly underpowered compared to the other professions - especially mining. 600 health is nothing when I see bear tanks in ICC with over 100k health.
40 crit is a little under 1% - so similar to the dwarf racial. Of the Alliance hunter classes - this racial is deemed the best of the three (although I still stand by my 1% hit on Puraa) - so an extra 1% from skinning isnt to be sniffed at. Even compared to the extra gem slots of blacksmithing, or the ring enchants - 40 crit is still relatively comparible.
And then we have lifeblood. I personally dont have a lvl 450 herbalist - so dont know if lifeblood is good or bad. But I do have a Draenai - with Gift of the Naaru. GotN heals Puraa for around 8-9000 health over15 seconds and I do use it quite regularly - entering a iceblock on Sindragosa, phase three of the Black Knight fight in ToC5 when I have a weaker healer, decimate on Stinky etc. Any self heal for a non healing class seems good to me - but I dont know what lifeblood heals for. Anything less than 5k and it seems very underpowered.
But to address Cass' point is that serious raiders arent gathers because of these bonuses. Perhaps this is true for the top 0.1% of high end raiding guilds - but I have never seen or heard of anyone being dropped because they mine rather than JC. Many guilds expect professions to be maxed (it shows you care about your character) but rarely stipulate what profs they must have
4. When Frost Lotus was extremely rare Herbalists made their profit on selling Frost Lotus, the other herbs were a byproduct. When the Frost Lotus rarity disappeared the income from herbing seemed to dissapear too. Add in a steady stream of Frozen Orbs (same patch as Dungeon Finder, right?) and all those Herbalists found other ways to make a profit.
Perhaps they realised that gathering herbs kind of sucks. Perhaps they're playing different characters now and chose different professions.
This is true. And remember its not just frost lotus, its crystallized life as well. The two big money winners - gone to Frozo (how did he get the gig anyhow I never saw the advertisement). I'd like to find some data about the decline of herbalists numbers - alas my searches have brought up nothing. Herbalism and mining always were (for me) annoying professions anyway - always heading out of your way to pick (double pun there) some herb/node. But I know some enjoy the tranquility of heading out, swooping in to tap some unknown resource - the excitement of not knowing quite your reward will be. Farming for fun, because standing around in Dalaran listening to the trade whores drives them mad.
What do you think?
I only farm one thing - the AH. I will spend a happy hour skipping between toons and servers making gold. Herbalists are no different - except that now they make little money out of their time.
The knock on effects of the increase in herb prices will not be fully felt because there is going to be less and less raiding between now the the release of the next expansion. Thus the demand for flasks and pots will diminish.
This is half the herb market - the other being glyphs. Glyphs are where I can start to see the squeeze occuring. Glyph prices are going to gradually increase - as glyph sales are going to increase - because those who remain playing wow will be leveling alts or going PvP for a while. As glyph demand increases - and herbs supplies arent there to meet the demand - this will force glyphs to increase in price. I also expect few people active within the glyph market as the profits from selling cheap glyphs disappears.
As for me - I rarely buy herbs these days. I still have some supplies from the 'glut' period but this is now around 1000 inks of the sea and no snowfall - so I need to make a decision soon.
I think herb prices will continue to rise - and expect another 30-40% increase from current prices over the next couple of months.
Would I give up herbalism (or any other gathering class?) - no. Cataclysm isnt far away and I think there will be a lot of people regretting their decisions when it finally arrives. Its a long hard grind to 450 in any professions especially a gathering one - so I think the herbalists may well have the last laugh when the expansion finally arrives.
Cassandri posted a excellent comment and then invited a response (foolish Cass!) so who am I refuse such a kind request?
I've always predicted this price rise - due to both of the major changes to herbing over recent patches. In February a blue post announced that "The drop rate of Frost Lotus, from herbs in Northrend, has been increased by 50%.". Then in patch 3.3.3, Frozo arrived in Dalaran and started trading Frozen Orbs for Frost Lotus.
I predicted at the time that this would result in herbs increasing in price - because less farming for Frost Lotus would occur because the profit would no longer be there. Last farming for Frost Lotus = less other herbs as a by product. Less availability of herbs = increase in price.
Cassandri offered other possible reasons:
I also think that the herb price inflation has additional factors (although the Frost Lotus increased drop rate and purchase using Frozen Orbs)
1. Less people are running Heroic Daily Dungeons, thus less Frozen Orbs on the market
This is solid reasoning - I know I run my random daily far less frequently now - especially on my hunter who has near 400 EoFs and nothing to spend them on. I can't be bothered waiting 15-20 minutes for a random for no reason. I don't even bother with the weekly unless its something I was going to do anyways or unless the guild needs me.
But I dont think this is the reason. Less orbs means Frozo does less business. Less business means less cheap frost lotus, thus frosts go up, thus the farming becomes more viable. I think the decline in heroics will eventually help herbs plateau in price.
2. In BC you pretty much had to farm to make gold. Even daily quests were capped at 5 then increased to 10 per day then up to our current limit. Over this expansion less and less people are choosing "farming" professions
I ranted a long time ago about Blizzard taking away the non AH gold making opportunities. Arctic fur. Epic gems from titanium ore. Frost Lotus. All the biggies for the three gathering professions - nerfed out of existence because of whinging idiots who couldnt afford to buy them and couldnt be bothered to farm them. Yet again Blizzard bringing the game down to the lowest common denominator - the M&S.
And Cass is right, this has killed these three profs very efficiently. However I don't know anyone that religiously does more than 5 or 6 dailies each day. Catreann does - but thats because she's after some rep or other (I lose track although I know she's grinding Tournament rep at the moment to get to her 100 mounts). I know no one who grinds dailies for money - 25 dailies for 20g a pop - probably takes 2 hours. Use the AH dammit, have I taught you nothing?!?
3. In addition to the above, you can't raid seriously with a gathering profession. Raiding is becoming more and more accessible, but the attitude towards gathering professions for raiding has not. Thus more people raid on more characters and do not choose Herbalism or Mining.
Each of the gathering professions has a personal buff which tries to compensate for the great bonuses other profs have (enchanters can enchant rings, scribes have shoulder enchant etc etc). These are as follows (at 450 skill):
Mining - Toughness All your hard work spent mining has made you exceptionally tough, increasing your Stamina by 60.
Skinning - Master of Anatomy Skinning all those dead animals has broadened your anatomical knowledge, increasing your critical strike rating by 40.
Herbalism - Lifeblood Uses your skill in Herbalism to absorb energy and nutrients from the earth, healing you for 3600 (increased by maximum health) over 5 sec. Can be used while stealthed or invisible.
I accept these are mostly underpowered compared to the other professions - especially mining. 600 health is nothing when I see bear tanks in ICC with over 100k health.
40 crit is a little under 1% - so similar to the dwarf racial. Of the Alliance hunter classes - this racial is deemed the best of the three (although I still stand by my 1% hit on Puraa) - so an extra 1% from skinning isnt to be sniffed at. Even compared to the extra gem slots of blacksmithing, or the ring enchants - 40 crit is still relatively comparible.
And then we have lifeblood. I personally dont have a lvl 450 herbalist - so dont know if lifeblood is good or bad. But I do have a Draenai - with Gift of the Naaru. GotN heals Puraa for around 8-9000 health over15 seconds and I do use it quite regularly - entering a iceblock on Sindragosa, phase three of the Black Knight fight in ToC5 when I have a weaker healer, decimate on Stinky etc. Any self heal for a non healing class seems good to me - but I dont know what lifeblood heals for. Anything less than 5k and it seems very underpowered.
But to address Cass' point is that serious raiders arent gathers because of these bonuses. Perhaps this is true for the top 0.1% of high end raiding guilds - but I have never seen or heard of anyone being dropped because they mine rather than JC. Many guilds expect professions to be maxed (it shows you care about your character) but rarely stipulate what profs they must have
4. When Frost Lotus was extremely rare Herbalists made their profit on selling Frost Lotus, the other herbs were a byproduct. When the Frost Lotus rarity disappeared the income from herbing seemed to dissapear too. Add in a steady stream of Frozen Orbs (same patch as Dungeon Finder, right?) and all those Herbalists found other ways to make a profit.
Perhaps they realised that gathering herbs kind of sucks. Perhaps they're playing different characters now and chose different professions.
This is true. And remember its not just frost lotus, its crystallized life as well. The two big money winners - gone to Frozo (how did he get the gig anyhow I never saw the advertisement). I'd like to find some data about the decline of herbalists numbers - alas my searches have brought up nothing. Herbalism and mining always were (for me) annoying professions anyway - always heading out of your way to pick (double pun there) some herb/node. But I know some enjoy the tranquility of heading out, swooping in to tap some unknown resource - the excitement of not knowing quite your reward will be. Farming for fun, because standing around in Dalaran listening to the trade whores drives them mad.
What do you think?
I only farm one thing - the AH. I will spend a happy hour skipping between toons and servers making gold. Herbalists are no different - except that now they make little money out of their time.
The knock on effects of the increase in herb prices will not be fully felt because there is going to be less and less raiding between now the the release of the next expansion. Thus the demand for flasks and pots will diminish.
This is half the herb market - the other being glyphs. Glyphs are where I can start to see the squeeze occuring. Glyph prices are going to gradually increase - as glyph sales are going to increase - because those who remain playing wow will be leveling alts or going PvP for a while. As glyph demand increases - and herbs supplies arent there to meet the demand - this will force glyphs to increase in price. I also expect few people active within the glyph market as the profits from selling cheap glyphs disappears.
As for me - I rarely buy herbs these days. I still have some supplies from the 'glut' period but this is now around 1000 inks of the sea and no snowfall - so I need to make a decision soon.
I think herb prices will continue to rise - and expect another 30-40% increase from current prices over the next couple of months.
Would I give up herbalism (or any other gathering class?) - no. Cataclysm isnt far away and I think there will be a lot of people regretting their decisions when it finally arrives. Its a long hard grind to 450 in any professions especially a gathering one - so I think the herbalists may well have the last laugh when the expansion finally arrives.
9 comments:
Thanks for the heads up, Sard. I haven't farmed herbs in ages both because of the sheer tediousness of it & the fact I've been able to cover my gear-augmenting expenses with the loot/good reward from the daily randoms. However, now I have two 80s and have finally gotten around to augmenting my pvp set and acquired 2 pieces of gear on the mage, I'm fresh out of money. Might be time to get back into the farming scene again - with some movies on my other screen of course!
gold* reward - pity you can't edit comments
I've been in guilds across 3 servers where you can't get a permanent 'raider' spot if you don't have 2 'raiding' profs maxed out.
None of these were top 0.1% guilds, but all were pretty serious about raiding successfully.
I think it's probably a more common requirement than you realize.
And I really did try to get the hang of the AH - and failed. Or rather, lost gold, got bored and went off to level my Shammy.
The limited exposure to raiding guilds I've had showed me they generally spent more time reviewing your chants, spec and ability over whether you were a leatherworker over a skinner. But hey whatever rocks their world I guess. I'll stick with MTRs
"Perhaps this is true for the top 0.1% of high end raiding guilds - but I have never seen or heard of anyone being dropped because they mine rather than JC."
I have to disagree. Every raiding guild that i've been in - from the "casual" to the "hardcore" hardmodes or not, will not accept a DPS or Healer with Herbalism or Mining as a profession. In fact, they're ridiculed for applied with said professions.
Gathering is for alts, the secondary professions provide the biggest stat boost and giving anything else in a raid is seen as not doing your part.
Only tanks are allowed to have Mining, because the +Stamina is preferable than what some other secondary professions offer.
As a scribe (and a scribe working on Darkmoon Faire rep at that!) I buy a lot of herbs. I have two alts with herbalism, but like you, I'd much prefer to farm the AH than farm actual herbs.
If I get the urge to farm herbs, I tend to farm Talandra's Rose. It's price seems quite high in comparison to all the other Northrend herbs and tends to fetch more than Lichbloom. It also helps that I love Zul'drak and am quite happy to while a few hours away under a pink sky.
But I'll be increasing my base sell prices for glyphs to about 5g50s each soon. I can't acquire Ink of the Sea for less when Tiger Lily -> Adder's Tongue range between 25g -> 37g with Icethorn somewhere in the middle.
Whatever the cause there is simply just not enough herbs on Auction House to meet demand at the moment.
Oh yeah, and I don't know anyone who reguarly does more than 10 dailies each day, but I DO know quite a few people that will, when they feel low on cash, resort to dailies to increase their gold pool instead of farming.
No doubt the things you mention are contributing factors but the main reason herb prices are skyrocketing is that all the farming bots were banned on May 31st. It's not just herb prices going up either, ore is up, borean leather is up and most other things are following those prices except epic gems due to cheap honor gems (rare gems on the other hand prospected from ore are up too).
Going further, Frost Lotus, Frozen Orb and Eternal prices are going up too. With all the farming bots gone there are far fewer farmed Eternals and Lotuses entering the market each day. Since you can buy both Lotus and Eternals with Frozen Orbs more players are buying orbs to trade for mats and the price of orbs goes up too.
THANK YOU for this post. I've been clueless as to the skyrocketing price of herbs and Saronite Ore and this explains a lot. I guess I never really tried to peer into the mind of a Miner/Herbalist/Skinner.
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