Glyphs - It depends on how you look at things

Last night it occured to me that I have probably been looking at things in one way, when I should be looking at them in another.

That's the problem with data - you analyse it one way then then you have to start over because you have been doing it wrong. Let me explain.

Assumptions

1. I post at the same time each day (pretty close to being true I post glyphs at 7.30-8am each day)
2. I always post glyphs for 48 hours (true) and never cancel (true)
3. I post after the glyphs posted two days before have expired (mostly true)

The above graph shows the lifespan of a glyph on the AH. If I post at 8am on a Monday it will expire at 8AM on the Wednesday. Very obvious stuff.

I generally post three of a glyph if I am posting. If the following day I am posting the same glyph (because I have been undercut or I have sold so of that glyph) I will post additional glyphs up to a maximum of three more glyphs. Therefore at any given time I can have somewhere between 0-6 of a specific glyph on the AH.

If a glyph sells, my data does not track which of the 0-6 glyphs it was. For example:

On Monday I post 3 Glyphs of Hunter's mark for 4g80s. Overnight one sells. The following day I have not been undercut, so on Tuesday morning I post an additional one glyph to get myself back up to three at 4g80s. If one of these three glyphs sells how do I know which glyph it was? Was it one of ones posted on Monday or the single on I posted on Tuesday?

People will ask whether it matters. Well actually it does quite significantly:


Situation One
Monday 8am - post three Glyphs of Hunter's mark. (M1, M2 and M3) for 4g80s
Monday 10am - one glyph sells (M1)
Tuesday 8am - post one Glyph of Hunter's Mark (T1) for 4g80s
Tuesday 10am - one glyph sells (?)

Scenario One
? = M2 (or M3)
Result - M3 (expires Wednesday 8am) and T1 (expires Thursday 8am) remain on AH

Scenario Two
? = T1
Result - M2 and M3 (both expire Wednesday 8am) remain on AH

It matters at 8am on Wednesday - if you miss a day posting (or sleep in because its your day off etc) then suddenly you have no presence on the AH. You cannot make gold if you aren't selling.

Now the above situation is not the most common situation. The more common situation is as follows:


Situation Two
Monday 8am - post three Glyphs of Hunter's mark. (M1, M2 and M3) for 5g80s

Monday 10am - one glyph sells (M1)
Monday 11am - You are undercut by 5s

Tuesday 8am - post Three Glyph of Hunter's Mark (T1, T2 and T3) for 5g55s
Tuesday 10am - one glyph sells (?)



Scenario One
? = T1 (or T2 or T3)

Result - M2 and M3 (both expire Wednesday 8am) and T2 and T3 (expires Thursday 8am) remain on AH


This is all that will happen because why would anyone by any of the Monday postings as they are 25s more expensive. But come Wednesday 8.05am, you have still havetwo glyphs left at 4g55s

But what if the undercutter disappears again? and suddenly we are at Situation One again i.e.

Situation Three

Monday 8am - post three Glyphs of Hunter's mark. (M1, M2 and M3) for 5g80s

Monday 10am - one glyph sells (M1)
Monday 11am - You are undercut by 5s

Tuesday 8am - post Three Glyph of Hunter's Mark (T1, T2 and T3) for 5g55s
Tuesday 10am - one glyph sells (T1)
Wednesday 8am - M2 and M3 expire
Wednesday 8.01am - post one Glyph of Hunter's Mark (W1) for 5g55s
Wednesday 10am -  one glyph sells (?)

Is it W1? T2 or T3? Are you about to lose presence in the market?

So what can we conclude from this? I don't know. You could argue that undercutters are ensuring that you always have presence on the AH. But eventually undercutters will drop the price below your threshold, and then what happens?


Situation Gour

Monday 8am - post three Glyphs of Hunter's mark. (M1, M2 and M3) for 4g80s

Monday 10am - one glyph sells (M1)
Monday 11am - You are undercut by 5s

Tuesday 8am - as 4g75s is under my threshold I post nothing
Wednesday 8am - M2 and M3 expire

So although undercutters make you you remain in the market at all times this is only true until they drop below your threshold. But that's OK isn't it- because its called a threshold for a reason.

Obviously I am being facecious. In an ideal work undercutters would not exist - I would be the only scribe posting glyphs on Cael and the world would be the land of milk and honey. Alas the world is not densely awash with cows and bees - so the above scenarios are what I face daily on a highly competitive glyph market.

I have set this scene for a reason. MThe day I have posted for the past few days was showing sales and incomes etc. But I was not able to work out what glyphs (in terms of days posted) were selling - but I realised I could.

Firstly the general sales figures for the week.

So another good day - almost 600g income. But of the 101 sales in the past 24 hours - how many were from the glyphs posted Wedneday morning (n=245) and how many from the Thursday ones (n=374)

I thought that by counting the unsold glyphs returned I could extract additional data:

And this is where I hit a wall - I have sold 458 glyphs so far this week. Of these only 221 came from the ones posted on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (i.e. the ones that have expired). That's less that 50%.

But on Tuesday I had 165 sales (must have come from Mondays listings because I had no glyphs up when I started this week) and on Wednesday I had 120 sales (which must have come from Mondays or Tuesdays posting). 165+120=285!!!

Something is wrong here. I know I have sold 458 glyphs (I just set up a glyph rerun to replace stock this morning and Puraa bought 454 parchment - so this is a confirmation)

But I think I did the mail return count correctly as well. I know I must have forgotten something. Perhaps I did post glyphs over the weekend and that these sold which is why sales figures are higher than returned mails would explain. I am untrusting of my return mail data - so for now I have to disregard this from my thoughts.